A recent published study assessed the potential for spread of some 783 species of garden plants non-native to Europe, which had naturalized outside Europe.
Species distribution models were used based on different climate change scenarios, revealing that 10% of Europe is climatically suitable for 70% of the species scrutinized. Areas of high naturalization risk are predicted to expand under the worst case climatic scenario, leading to a 68% of Europe being at risk of naturalization.
The Authors highlight the need of increasing awareness of plant invasions under climate change within horticultural circles.
Dullinger I, Wessely J, Bossdorf O, Dawson W, Essl F, Gattringer A, Klonner G, Kreft H, Kuttner M, Moser D, Pergl J, Pyšek P, Thuiller W, van Kleunen, Weigelt P, Winter M, Dullinger S (2017) Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography 26, 43-53, DOI: 10.1111/geb.12512